Last week, markets were a bit like a see-saw, with small ups and downs as everyone waited for important economic news. On Thursday, we got some of that news: inflation data (Core CPI) met expectations, while consumer sentiment took a surprise dip and manufacturing activity slowed a bit. This hints that maybe the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in June, which got investors excited!
This excitement caused a late-week rally, boosting major indexes and even helping the Nasdaq Composite set a new record.
This week, everyone’s eyes are on job market reports and what Federal Reserve Chair Powell has to say in his testimony to Congress. Investors will be listening closely to see if he gives any clues about the future of interest rates.
Let’s take a look at what other releases are in store for us and what to expect from them.
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, March 5, at 17:00 GMT+2
On Tuesday, March 5th at 17:00 GMT+2, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report drops. This is no ordinary number – it gives us a sneak peek into the health of the US service sector, a massive chunk of the economy responsible for over 70% of GDP.
Why the buzz? PMI indices are like economic crystal balls, often signaling shifts in the broader economy before they happen. Analysts are expecting a slight slowdown to 52.3, down from last month’s 53.4. This could impact major indexes like the Nasdaq, SPX500, and Dow Jones, so keep those charts close!
🇪🇺 Retail Sales m/m on Wednesday, March 6, at 12:00 GMT+2
European Retail Sales (month-over-month) data drops this Tuesday. This report reveals how much retail sales changed compared to the previous month, giving us a crucial look at how shoppers are feeling about the economy.
Consumer spending is a major driver of economic growth. Analysts expect a slight rebound to 0.1% after last month’s decline of -1.1%. A stronger-than-expected number could boost the euro (EUR/USD), while a weaker figure might weigh on it. Keep an eye on this release for clues about the health of the European economy.
🇨🇦 BoC Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, March 6, at 16:45 GMT+2
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its latest interest rate decision this Wednesday. This is where they set the key interest rate for Canada, which currently stands at 5.00%.
Analysts widely expect the BoC to hold rates steady this time around, as inflation remains stubbornly high. However, any surprise comments or changes in their outlook could still shake things up. Keep a close eye on the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), as this decision often causes ripples in the currency market.
🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, March 7, at 15:15 GMT+2
The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its latest interest rate decision this Thursday. This is where they determine the key interest rate for the Eurozone, which currently stands at 4.50%. Analysts widely expect the ECB to hold rates steady this time around.
Interest rates set by the ECB influence the value of the euro (EUR/USD) and can impact major European stock indexes like the DAX30. Even if no change is expected, any surprise comments or hints about future moves could still cause market fluctuations.
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, March 8, at 15:30 GMT+2
It’s the final major economic release of the week! This Friday, March 8th, the US Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment Rate figures drop. These reports are crucial, revealing how many new jobs were created and the percentage of people actively seeking work. Analysts are expecting a slowdown to 220K jobs added, down from January’s strong 353K figure.
This data is closely watched by the Federal Reserve when deciding on interest rates. A weaker-than-expected report could signal economic softening, potentially boosting XAU/USD (currently near $2,100) and weakening the US Dollar.
That’s it for this week! 👋
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