This week, all eyes are on a series of pivotal economic events that have the potential to significantly sway the financial markets. From key releases in the UK and EU to crucial data from the USA, each announcement carries the weight to influence major currency pairs and indices.
🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change
The first key release of the week will be on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT+2 in the United Kingdom. This is the Claimant Count Change, which presents a change in the total number of people claiming unemployment benefits during the given month. The indicator is calculated based on administrative data from the benefits and social support system.
Its changes can affect the British Pound (GBP), especially in the GBP/USD pair. Currently, the pair is holding steady near 1.2750, but this could change following the release. Especially since the forecast is set at -0.7K, compared to the previous figure of 16.0K. The noticeable difference means the market will inevitably react to this news. Stay alert.
🇬🇧 CPI and Core CPI m/m
The next key release of the week to look out for will be on Wednesday, January 17th, also at 9:00 GMT+2. This is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures the change in prices of goods and services, thereby reflecting inflation. Figures higher than expected are seen as positive/bullish for the GBP (a common way to combat inflation is by raising rates, which can attract foreign investment), while figures lower than expected indicate a negative/bearish market for the GBP. The FTSE 100 index will also be in focus.
The forecast suggests that the monthly CPI in the United Kingdom will remain unchanged, and the annual rate is expected to decrease by 0.2%.
🇪🇺 CPI and Core CPI m/m
On the same day on Wednesday, at 12:00 GMT+2, the release of the CPI and Core CPI for the European Union will be published. Consequently, the EUR/USD currency pair will be the focus. This pair is currently trading firmly above 1.0950 amid light trading. However, it could decline further if the inflation figures turn out to be negative. For now, analysts believe that the data will remain unchanged from the previous month and will stay the same on an annual basis as well.
🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speech
On Wednesday at 17:15 GMT+2, a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will begin, offering more clarity on the ECB’s upcoming monetary policy strategy. Further speeches are also scheduled for Thursday at 17:15 GMT+2 and Friday at noon. It is possible that the future ECB Interest Rate Decision, currently at 4.5%, will be discussed. Any indications of a weakening or increase in the rate could impact European markets, including the DAX30 index.
🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales
The final important economic release of the week will be published on Friday, January 19th, at 17:00 GMT+2. The Existing-Home Sales data in the USA measures the sales and prices of existing single-family homes for the nation as a whole, including breakdowns for the West, Midwest, South, and Northeast regions of the country.
This indicator has an impact on the US Dollar, as well as indices such as the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and SPX500. According to analysts’ forecasts, the figure is expected to show a slight increase from last time, specifically rising to 3.80M for the month.
That’s it for this week! 👋
