NAGA Weekly Recap December 4 – 2023 – December 8 – 2023

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In this week’s economic digest, we delve into the dynamic shifts in the financial landscape. From Alphabet’s AI advancements stirring the tech market, to OPEC+’s influence on fluctuating oil prices, and the intriguing movements of the USD/JPY amidst policy speculations – each event paints a vivid picture of the current economic scenario.

How will these pivotal moments shape the global economy?

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Wall Street bull gives highest 2024 S&P forecast yet

Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s head of research, predicts a significant surge in the S&P 500 ($SPX500), expecting it to reach 5,200 by the end of 2024, marking a growth of over 13%. His optimism is fueled by decreasing inflation, which he anticipates will lead to more relaxed financial conditions and help the US economy avoid a recession.

His strategy includes focusing on sectors like small caps, financials, and real estate, which have not performed as well as other markets in the 2023 rally.

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Markets cheer Google’s debut of AI model Gemini

Alphabet’s stock ($GOOG) saw a 5.3% rise on Thursday, buoyed by the positive reception of its new artificial intelligence model, Gemini. This development is seen as Alphabet’s move to reclaim its position in the AI race, especially against Microsoft-supported OpenAI. Alphabet, a long-time AI research leader, had lost some of its prominence after the debut of OpenAI’s ChatGPT last November, which enabled Microsoft to introduce AI-driven software to the business sector swiftly.

The introduction of Gemini is expected to enhance Alphabet’s standing in AI, as evidenced by the notable increase in its shares.

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OPEC+ leaders urge compliance with supply cuts as oil prices fluctuate

The leaders of Russia and Saudi Arabia have called on OPEC+ members to comply with their agreement to reduce oil supplies amid falling prices. In a joint statement following their meeting, they stressed the global economic benefits of such a move. This followed a significant drop in Brent crude prices, which recently rebounded to over $75 a barrel after falling near $100 in September. The price decrease was linked to doubts about OPEC+ members’ commitment to the supply cut pledge, but the joint statement highlighted the group’s role in stabilizing the global oil market.

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USD/JPY extends recovery above 144.00

The USD/JPY pair is recovering, exceeding 144.00 amid Japan’s weaker Q3 GDP data and speculation of policy changes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This contrasts with expectations of the US Federal Reserve potentially ending rate hikes and reducing rates by March, affecting the US Dollar. The Yen, usually a safe-haven currency, is being supported by prospects of the BoJ moving away from its ultra-loose monetary policy.

After a sharp 4% drop on Thursday, the USD/JPY rebounded slightly, influenced by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s hints at ending negative interest rates possibly next year.