Commercial Banks 1Q2020 Earnings Forecast:

HBL, UBL, ABL and MCB will publish their quarterly results today, 22nd of April. BAFL will announce the result on 26th April, 2020 and MEBL has not yet announced the date. Our estimates are below. We think the consensus estimates will be revised down post these results. We expect most banks to revise their guidance. We are modelling a sharp increase in provisions for most banks to prepare for the slowdown in the economy. The sector is likely to underperform during this period.