The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) recently released its quarterly economic review, focusing on the developments during 1HFY20. The SBP took note of the positive impact of reforms and measures introduced to stabilize the economy, citing improving economic indicators including CAD (down 76% YoY) and Fiscal Deficit (down 0.4 pps YoY). The central bank, however,… Continue reading Analysis of SBP’s Quarterly Economic Review
Category: Economy
Unfolding corona
The story of this quarter solely revolves around the word “coronavirus” and why shouldn’t it , given the fact that it has turned the whole world upside down. It has not only inflicted emotional and psychological pain but also has made our economies and markets vulnerable. On the flip side, OPEC+ countries weren’t coming slow… Continue reading Unfolding corona
KASB Research Pakistan: CPI Inflation slows down to 10.24% during Mar20
CPI inflation has slowed down 10.24% during Mar20, in-line with our estimates of 10.30%, and has averaged 11.53% during 9MFY20. On a monthly basis, inflationary pressures largely subsided and inched up by a marginal 0.04%. We believe subdued inflation during Mar20 was supported in part by alleviating supply side pressures in the food segment (weight:… Continue reading KASB Research Pakistan: CPI Inflation slows down to 10.24% during Mar20
A walk back into the past
History has always fascinated me, but to my utter dismay we have failed to learn from it. Time and time again throughout history we have had catastrophic pandemics that have not only wiped out millions of people from the face of this earth but more importantly have left major dent on global economies and financial… Continue reading A walk back into the past
Black swan and the global economy
While the global economy was still recovering from the wounds afflicted by the Financial Crises of 2007-08, coronavirus has come as a “black swan” and has dealt us another blow. It has just exacerbated our pain by sprinkling salt on to our pre-existing wounds. As I write, all I see is bloodbath in stock markets,… Continue reading Black swan and the global economy
Macro Blog: Happy weekend
Dear Friends, I hear its a nice and sunny day in Karachi. London is also preparing for its spring. I’ll be honest, last week was very tough. We have been self-quarantined in almost a full lock-down with our two daughters, Mashal (9) and Manahil (6). I hear its mostly similar outside. In December, I spent… Continue reading Macro Blog: Happy weekend
Can Pakistan’s economic decay be halted?
Expectations were sky-high when Imran Khan took over Pakistan’s reins in 2018 with most voters hoping that their financial well-being would improve. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) government has now been in power for approximately 18 months, and therefore, it would be a good time to gauge whether the hopes of their voters were misplaced or… Continue reading Can Pakistan’s economic decay be halted?
Pakistan Macro Blog: Entanglement
Dear Friends, The state of the economy worries me. Last week’s Monetary Policy Statement (click here) reads mildly positive in its tone, but the finer print is not so rosy. The State Bank noted that due to shocks in cotton production and contraction in large scale manufacturing, the government will not meet its economic growth… Continue reading Pakistan Macro Blog: Entanglement
Macro Blog: Risks to the IMF program
Dear Friends, The political chatter is becoming hard to ignore, though it is still missing from sell side commentary. I just returned from Islamabad and political intrigue was the main topic of discussion, both on coffee tables as well as on the 20-30 TV channels. Even the Prime Minister had to issue a clarification, denying the… Continue reading Macro Blog: Risks to the IMF program
10 For 20 – My Predictions For 2020
Mia culpa. Yes, I am late to the party. Most of my peers in Pakistan have already published their 100+ page reports on the outlook for 2020. All are bullish – with the KSE100 Index forecast range of 47,400 – 55,000 for December 2020. No rocket science, or rather any sort of science, there. The… Continue reading 10 For 20 – My Predictions For 2020
