• As the chart below shows, both new cases and the death rates have peaked globally. The increase in new cases in the US yesterday was 4.4%% (at the peak it was more than 30%). In Western Europe ex Italy, the growth of new cases is only 2.3%. Australia seems to have almost controlled its… Continue reading KASB Ray of Hope: Planning for opening up
Category: COVID-19
KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: Don’t eat dogs
China is planning to classify dogs as “pets” in order to avoid people eating them. They are also considering measures to discourage eating of other wild- life. In a way this new policy contradicts the conspiracy theory that the virus was developed in a lab in Virginia. Nevertheless, I do think that crisis will accelerate… Continue reading KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: Don’t eat dogs
KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: Next two weeks are critical
While the stock market’s recovery might suggest that people think that the worse is behind us, the panel of doctors we hosted on a call today think that it is too early to gauge. According to their opinion while they have not seen high rise in critical cases from COVID19 but the lack of data… Continue reading KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: Next two weeks are critical
KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: Trusting imperfect data
Austria has announced that small shops will open from the 14th of April. Wuhan is also opening after a 76-day lock down. Most European countries, except for France and UK have seen almost flattening of the infection curve. New case growth in the US has slowed down to 8.3%. The positive reaction of the market… Continue reading KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: Trusting imperfect data
KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: The government might deserve some credit
The rate of growth of new cases has fallen substantially and global markets have rallied today on the back of that. In the US, new cases increased by 8.3% on Sunday, much lower than the 30%+ growth a few days back. Chart 4 below shows the bending of the curve. • Our post on the… Continue reading KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: The government might deserve some credit
KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: On the bright side
Pakistan’s first case was documented on the 26th Feb, the UK had 16 cases and then and the US had 60. So far, (Thanks to Allah) we have avoided the same growth. Admittedly the statistics on infection might be unreliable due to lack of testing but as the chart below shows, our deaths also have… Continue reading KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: On the bright side
Unfolding corona
The story of this quarter solely revolves around the word “coronavirus” and why shouldn’t it , given the fact that it has turned the whole world upside down. It has not only inflicted emotional and psychological pain but also has made our economies and markets vulnerable. On the flip side, OPEC+ countries weren’t coming slow… Continue reading Unfolding corona
KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: Folly of forecasts
The US jobless claims increased to 6.6m. Analyst’s consensus estimate was 3.7m. This shows how futile financial modelling is. I say this because, obviously the most frequent question I get asked is if the valuations are cheap for investing. The reality is that any opinion is pure guesswork at this time (more so than in… Continue reading KASB COVID-19 UPDATE: Folly of forecasts
